Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?
Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?
โž•
Plus
27
แน€4643
2040
30%
chance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index

'The Democracy Index published by the Economist Group is an index measuring the quality of democracy across the world.
...
The index is based on 60 indicators grouped into five categories, measuring pluralism, civil liberties, and political culture. In addition to a numeric score and a ranking, the index categorizes each country into one of four regime types: full democracies, flawed democracies, hybrid regimes, and authoritarian regimes.'

The United States degraded from being a full democracy to a flawed democracy in 2016. Will this trend accelerate?

  • If the Economist Democracy Index is no longer updated by 2040 then I will try to find a consensus on a comparable index.

  • This market will resolve YES if at any point the United States degrades into a hybrid regime, regardless if it then recovers as a flawed democracy by 2040.

I will not bet in this market.

#๏ธ Politics
#๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Politics
#๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 2024 US Presidential Election
#United States
#๏ธ US Democracy
#Democracy
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5 Comments
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opened a แน€80 YES at 5% order1mo

@SemioticRivalry @skibidist I am once again asking you to fill my YES limit orders

1mo

@Shai Hello, I don't bet on these because I neither trust nor understand how the minds at the Economist operate. They already score the US lower than EU countries, which I cannot take seriously.

@skibidist At least they're better than the EU based indexes. I wouldn't bet on a small change but getting to 'Hybrid Regime' is a very large drop.

1mo

@Shai I'm not confident that the fair value of this market is less than 10%

1mo

@SemioticRivalry 15? 20?

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