Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?
Mini
7
Ṁ119Dec 31
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Evidence will be a formal announcement but not necessarily shipping of a new computing device using a chip that is fabbed on the new (2nm?) process. Most likely candidate will be the iPhone 16 Pro.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?
60% chance
Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?
31% chance
Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?
42% chance
Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?
11% chance
Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?
27% chance
Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?
61% chance
Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips in 2024?
11% chance
Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?
20% chance
Will a Chinese company make and release a semiconductor equal to or less than 5nm by the end of 2024?
9% chance