Will any AXRP episode released in 2024 get >10,000 downloads by end of year?
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NO

AXRP is the AI X-risk Research Podcast - found wherever podcasts are distributed, and transcripts available at axrp.net.

In 2021, the average episode of AXRP got 416 downloads in the first 30 days, with the most-downloaded episode getting 881 (that being the last episode of the year - the second-most downloaded episode got 478 downloads). In 2022, the average episode got 780 downloads in the first 30 days, and the most-downloaded episode got 909. In 2023, the average episode got 1,768 downloads in the first 30 days, and the most-downloaded episode got 3,524 downloads.

As you can see, there's been some growth. This question asks whether by the end of 2024, any episode will have gotten more than 10,000 downloads.

Note that download counts are IAB downloads, which attempt to filter out spam - read more here.

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Alas no - the most-downloaded episode was the first of the year, with Buck Shlegeris and Ryan Greenblatt on AI control, which got a mere 1,569 downloads. I actually thought it was a good year for the podcast, but I didn't have any guests who are particularly famous outside the AI safety world (like I did last year)

See also https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-a-new-episode-of-axrp-get-2000 and https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-a-new-episode-of-axrp-get-3000

Will a new episode of AXRP get >2,000 downloads in 2023?
53% chance. AXRP is the AI X-risk Research Podcast - found wherever podcasts are distributed, and transcripts available at axrp.net. So far, there have been 6 proper episodes of AXRP this year. Here is the download numbers for each one in the first 30 days, sorted by download count and without episode names attached: 3,524 2,420 1,473 1,249 981 959 Will any as-yet-unreleased episode of AXRP get >2,000 downloads this year? Notes: I'm asking about total downloads by the end of the year, not downloads in the first 30 days (altho most episodes get most of their downloads in that period). I'm talking about IAB downloads, not raw downloads. The distinction is explained here, but tl;dr it's trying to filter out spam/fake downloads. I am planning on releasing more episodes this year, but it's possible the pace will slow down as I work on my thesis.

I bet yes because it seems reasonable the audience will continue to grow and AI Safety is becoming a more mainstream topic.

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