Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?
Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?
➕
Plus
20
Ṁ3884
2026
7%
chance

Will the North Atlantic Counsel (NAC) decide before the end of 2025 that an attack on one of the NATO partners fulfilled the criteria to initiate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty? This would mean that all NATO partners will have the obligation to collectively defend the attacked NATO partner.

Market will resolve yes if the NAC publicly states that the NATO will instigate article 5, regardless of actual action undertaken by NATO partners.

Market will resolve no if no statement has been made before the end of 2025.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.