In some states (like my own) parties don't run primaries to select nominees; there's just a jungle primary. If a Democrat that identifies as an Effective Altruist runs in the jungle primary, does this resolve as "YES?"

@CadeMataya This market is trying to capture probability of winning the a Democratic primary. For a jungle primary, I think the closest to the spirit of that would be to resolve YES if an effective altruist was one of the two top vote-getters who moved on to the general. Open to changing my mind on this if people have other arguments.

@DismalScientist No, this is fair. It seems like that metric would tell us a lot more about how people (particularly Democrats that live in states with closed congressional primaries) feel about Effective Altruism than if some random EA on the bayou decided to run with a D next to their name (certainly a possibility). Plus the way you phrased it seems to indicate that you were hoping that this person was the chosen candidate for the Democratic Party in the state ("the Democratic Party nominee"). I think it's perfectly valid to rule the way you have.