Will the % chance of this question be positive or negative on Jan 1 2026.
Will the % chance of this question be positive or negative on Jan 1 2026.
Mini
5
Ṁ145
2026
39%
chance

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the probability shown on this exact question at 12:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2026:

  • YES if the market probability is > 50%

  • NO if the market probability is ≤ 50%

If the market is closed or deleted before the resolution date, it will resolve based on the last recorded probability.

Considerations

  • The market's final probability will reflect traders' collective assessment of various technological, social, and economic factors leading up to 2026

  • The resolution is based purely on the market probability at the specified time, not on any external assessment of whether impacts were actually positive or negative

  • Historical data shows that long-term predictions about technological impacts often have significant uncertainty, as demonstrated by frequently exceeded AI progress forecasts

  • If the market has exactly 50% chance, then it will be a partial resolution

#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 US Politics
#Economics
#️ Technology
#World
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments
4 Holders
15 Trades


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