https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113472884874740859

Seems like a good start for Musk so far.
(As to what duration of time this lasts, time will tell.)

В России есть поговорка: Трамп всегда заплатит. Если не в рублях, то в жопе. 🍆

https://x.com/carolinegruyter/status/1855235419098497261?s=46

Looks positive so far

@verditude Pffffffft. But also yes.

How much is there to repay?

Tesla price increased from $242.84 before election to $321.22 which has increased Musk wealth from like ~$250Bn? to $304bn.

Was Musk just doing from self interest and this has already been worth the effort such that there is nothing that Trump needs to repay?

@ChristopherRandles it could be possible that the Tesla price increase is from shareholders anticipating Trump enacting policies favorable to Musk. If Trump unexpectedly ended up not doing that, I could see Tesla price dropping as a result

@AmmonLam What are some policies that might be good for Tesla? Maybe tariffs on Chinese EVs?

@AmmonLam Well said. "Markets are hard to predict because markets are predictions."

Semi related:

Will Yudkowsky resolve this question in good faith?

@YuxiLiu I'll bet you that he will

I think the only repayment he wants is laxed FAA regulations and prob some tesla stuff

How does it resolve if Elon is given a cabinet position, Elon does do real things with the cabinet position, Trump wants Elon to do something really stupid three months later, Elon says no, and Trump fires Elon?

@mongo If Elon got to do some real things commensurate with his backing, before being fired, I'd call it YES. Maybe I'm way overestimating Elon's realism or Trump's legibility, but I feel like this sort of scenario ought to be understood as baked-in by both parties, along with some sort of implicit promise to maybe wait 3 months until Elon had a chance to get some stuff done.

Potentially relevant on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-administration?tid=1731013678481

You need a better definition of good faith

Elon is an honorary member of the Trump family, and Trump does well by his family.

Related:

Does offering Musk a government position count as "repaying backing"?

@makeworld If Musk is allowed to do things with it and does things with it and those things are commensurate to Musk's backing, basically? Third Deputy Undersecretary of Pocket Lint would not count.

Are you looking for instances of favoritism? Because I think Musk is primarily looking for a chance to contribute and for a level playing field (e.g. Tesla not being excluded from EV talks, various bureaucracies not blocking his companies on clearly political grounds, NASA not hesitating to use SpaceX for help in a crisis, FEMA not going out of their way to avoid Starlink).

Will this resolve yes, if Musk is given a trusted role to contribute and if his companies are treated in ways that don't seem overtly political one way or the other, but without instances of what appears to be unfair favoritism where his products and offers weren't chosen on their merits?

@EjnarHakonsen Getting a "level playing field" requires some degree of political backing; so yes, if Musk suddenly gets a level playing field, and is thereby enabled to do significant new things, that would count.

I think he will repay him, but only because of the prospect of further support and benefits

Some examples of unfair treatment Musk received under Biden that Trump could potentially reverse or make go away:

• SpaceX not awarded ~$800m contract / funds to provide internet connectivity to rural areas (https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-probes-fcc-decision-to-revoke-starlink-funds/, https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/12/23999070/spacex-starlink-fcc-rural-digital-opportunity-fund-fcc-rejected)

• Tesla snubbed at WH electric vehicle summit (https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/05/business/tesla-snub-white-house-event/index.html)

• California Coastal Commission blocking SpaceX launches with the explicit reason that it was because they don't like his politics (https://pacificlegal.org/the-california-coastal-commissions-political-retribution-against-elon-musk/)

• DOJ suing SpaceX for hiring discrimination against non-U.S. citizens, despite them being subject to contradictory export controls requiring them to hire only U.S. persons (https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-spacex-discriminating-against-asylees-and-refugees-hiring)

• Various run-ins with the SEC over his tweets / twitter acquisition (less clear that these were particularly unfair to Musk, though a Trump admin could have plausibly leaned on various regulators to favor Musk over his counter-parties / shareholders)
  
  

Some of the above are likely to resolve favorably for Musk or go away naturally without Trump's direct intervention though, due to Republican control of congress, ordinary government proceedings, etc.

And it seems like a lot of what Musk wants is to just stop being unfairly targeted - if Trump does nothing other than leave him alone and put an end to the current targeting Musk is subject to by various government agencies, is that sufficient for YES?

@max There's an argument for Trump having repaid Musk by winning the election. If Musk believed that X would be shut down with a Harris victory, then Trump only needed to provide a win in return for that backing.

There are also potential indirect returns. If Trump negotiates deals with countries the US is currently in conflict with, then Musk could benefit from those markets.

@max “Unfair”

@max I don't think I'd count just reversing the Coastal Commission thing, but I'd start to count it if SpaceX got contracts for Internet connectivity, depending on their magnitude and on the rest of the situation surrounding Trump/Elon.

@max CCC is a state agency, Biden has no control over that and even a lot of elected Democrats in the California State Government hate it too.