Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before September 1, 2025, the Israeli government officially announces it is pursuing a plan to annex any part of the Gaza Strip. The announcement must come from an official government source, such as the Prime Minister's Office or the Ministry of Defense, and be reported by reputable news outlets. Threats of annexation without a concrete plan or commitment are not sufficient to resolve to "Yes".

Background

In recent months, Israeli officials have discussed potential annexation of parts of Gaza. On July 30, 2025, Israeli Minister Zeev Elkin suggested that Israel could threaten to annex parts of Gaza to pressure Hamas amid stalled ceasefire negotiations. (reuters.com) Additionally, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has advocated for reestablishing Jewish settlements in Gaza, indicating a shift in government policy. (timesofisrael.com)

Some contemporary news articles on this topic:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-to-warn-hamas-it-will-annex-parts-of-gaza-if-no-hostage-deal-reached/amp/

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/netanyahu-presents-plan-annex-parts-gaza

• Update 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that occupation is distinct from annexation for the purposes of this market resolution. Military occupation of Gaza would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - only an official announcement of a plan to annex (formally incorporate territory) would meet the resolution criteria.