Basic question: Which riders will be announced as riders for the 2025 season with Team Bora-Hansgrohe?
ANNOUNCED. Not signed. Not "wait til they actually ride". This resolves on announcements.
If the team merges, changes sponsor, whatever, this probably still covers the new team. If it is obvious that it should not cover the new team, we can talk about what to do then. If they cease to exist, things will probably resolve No instead of N/A.
For riders on the 2024 roster:
If the team announces an extension publicly for the 2025 season (or longer), resolves Yes promptly. If it is common knowledge that they will ride for the team or have a 2025 contract, that is not enough to resolve yes. It has to be an announcement of a new, longer contract. Example: If Kooij announces an extension to 2027, he resolves Yes promptly.
If a different team announces a signing for 2025, resolves No promptly.
If there is no announcement about 2025, we're going to wait until the UCI website or team otherwise confirms they are on the 2025 squad.
For riders not on the 2024 roster (transfers in):
Resolves Yes if the team announces a signing. Resolves No if some other team announces a signing.
If there is an announcement that would lead to a prompt Yes or No resolution, but there is doubt about the claim or people are unsure of it for some reason, we can wait until it is more clear, even as long as the UCI website or official team roster for 2025. Example: Team accidentally announces on social media then immediately retracts --> Don't resolve yet. Example: Visma claims they signed Cian and Bora immediately counter-claims he's still for them --> Don't resolve yet. (If it resolves before the report is retracted, then a new answer can be created but it will not be unresolved.)
If some rider resolves Yes or No based on the criteria, and then new info comes out that puts that rider in question again, we can add a new option for that player, but we are not going to re-resolve or unresolve the earlier one. For example, if we had resolved Cian Yes for Bora 2024, and then there was word he might be leaving, we would not unresolve that, we would create a new answer for Cian.
@Eliza https://x.com/RBH_ProCycling/status/1815721051973620174
and could you resolve Hindley pls?
Some rumors going on about Remco and WvA: https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/road-racing/reports-bora-hansgrohe-hunts-wout-van-aert-remco-evenepoel-for-rampage-into-red-bull-era/
@egroj I don't particular expect that, but so far I assume he has only an one-year-contract and therefore in my eyes 87% is too high.
I'm pretty interested in Hindley, Buchmann and Schachmann, and of course no one places a bet ๐คฃ
Hindley is the first GT winner for Bora, but now just number 2 after Roglic.
Buchmann and Schachmann are way overpaid, because they are German and haven't got any important results in the past two to three years, BUT THEY ARE GERMAN.
I don't know in which direction ton change the probability on these ones.
I'm also very interested but I have no info and no idea what to do other than bet on vibes. Maybe betting on vibes is a good thing in this case.
@Eliza But I don't have a vibe on these. If I was Denk, I'd fire Buchmann and Schachmann and keep Hindley. But I don't have these German goggles. Kamna and Denz are a nobrainer for me, I get the vibes there. Not with Buchmann and Schachmann. And I'm not sure how happy Hindley is with the new addition Primoz and beeing domestique.
@egroj Easy answer is pcs, but not always accurate. I found exact one German article which mentioned it's an on year deal, others mentioned it's not public. Often these little German newssides are quite good in finding this German related stuff. I didn't check Italian news. So I'm not 100% sure if it's really just an oneyear deal.
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/matteo-sobrero
https://www.rad-net.de/ajax.aspx/content/5d2c8f7b-95b8-4588-8c84-d68d67d50c01.html
@Lion I mainly don't trust ANYTHING if it's not a direct release from the team. The 2nd hand reports from reporters are often correct, but not always. PCS is right "enough" but not really to a level of "I trust it".
That's actually a good part of the reason for making markets like this, I want to know what people actually believe.
I hope to be able to look at this page in, say, March, and have a rough idea what Bora 2025 will look like. By September it should look very confident.
So far, it's looking great, thanks for participating!
@Eliza One of the trickiest teams to find contract lengths has been EF Education, they're super vague. If anyone finds a way to figure those out with confidence.....go win this market I guess:
/Eliza/which-riders-will-be-announced-for-2b5a2f6b9270
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@Eliza Here we go again. I don't even trust it when it's released by the team. (see uijtdebroeks). ๐
That's where thinking in probabilties becomes usefull. I don't know the length of the deal, but 87% is too high based on the current informations, so I buy no.