How many House seats will the GOP lose in 2026?
➕
Plus
9
Ṁ590
2026
11%
seat gain
14%
0-10
13%
11-20 seats
15%
21-30 seats
17%
31-40 seats
29%
41+ seats

  • Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The baseline for this market will be the number of House seats held by the GOP on December 31, 2025.

  • Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The final count of GOP House seats will be based on the count of newly elected representatives from the 2026 general election.

#Elections
#U.S. Congress
#US Senate
#118th Congress
#2026 US Congressional Elections
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4 Comments
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From what baseline?

@EvanDaniel I presume the number of House seats on December 31, 2025.

@EnopoletusHarding And the final is the count of newly elected representatives? (As opposed to those still serving their terms as of December 31, 2026.) When / how is the new count determined?

Basically I'm trying to understand how this market will handle retirement, resignation, death, elections that are slow to determine a winner, and so on.

@EvanDaniel "And the final is the count of newly elected representatives?"

Yes.

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