If they only miss, it doesn't count.
Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An attack will only count if a missile is not considered off-target.
Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user's scenario, the creator confirmed that an attack will count as a hit for a YES resolution if it misses its specific intended target (e.g., a hangar) but hits another valuable asset on the military site (e.g., an aircraft).
Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An attack will be considered a miss if the missile is intercepted.
@EnopoletusHarding i mean, i never personally saw any evidence that the attempted strike was successful. I'm under the assumption that all the missiles heading towards the base were intercepted. Not just saying this because I bet no, but I never saw anything proving the attack was successful
"A Qatari military officer said one of 19 missiles fired by Iran was not intercepted and hit the base"
If this is true, this market should resolve Yes. But I'm not entirely sure whether this is true.
https://apnews.com/article/al-udeid-air-base-military-qatar-iran-501e9e64e80480ef3aa4ee43c1243235
@EnopoletusHarding Not true. Essentially all other major news sources, including ones with exclusives with officials, confirm that none hit the base.
"I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their 'system,' and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
I actually think this quote from Trump matters. This indicates some damage was done but he considered it insignificant.
I've also seen reports of a radar array being taken out, but I'm having a hard time finding a credible news source saying the same.
@Sketchy @EnopoletusHarding
1. There were differing reports about how many missiles were fired. Iran said six, the US said 14, and Qatar was reported by Reuters as saying 19 - all of which, it added, were intercepted. (BBC and Reuters) https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjxdgjpd48o
2. The latest: A total of 14 Iranian missiles were intercepted by Qatari air defenses, according to a source familiar with the matter.
One missile struck a building near the Al Udeid base, but there were no casualties and no damage inflicted to military infrastructure, the source said. (One was not intercepted, but didn't strike base, therefore not resolving the criteria). https://www.axios.com/2025/06/23/iran-retaliation-trump-israel-war
Qatar’s Ministry of Defence, meanwhile, said its air defence systems successfully intercepted the Iranian missiles targeting the base. “We are proud of the response to today’s attack and no damage was reported,” Qatari officials said.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/23/iran-attacks-us-air-base-in-qatar-what-we-know-so-far
@rohanvisme "hardly any damage" doesn't actually imply that the damage was done to the base.
This tweet by Trump says that one missile was "set free", because it was heading in a non-threatening direction, meaning that it didn't hit the base/cause any damage.
@EnopoletusHarding All major media stations are quoting the same guy, this "Qatari official", but AP news seems to be differing from the pack/altering his statement for some reason.
@EnopoletusHarding btw I'm now buying into this market based on your claims that an intercepted attack doesn't account. If people convince you to make it count, which would not be unreasonable, you should void the market rather than resolve yes.
@DanielHeinz Doing the same, because if this is the case, then this market seems incredibly overvalued.
@EnopoletusHarding but just to confirm, they would need to do more than they have already done for this to resolve yes?
@EnopoletusHarding It is quite unlikely that Iran chooses to attack a US military base in the next 5 days as it is. The fact that it this market is based on the fact that Iran will, ALONG with the fact that this attack manages to get past any defenses or anti-balastic missiles set in place, makes a resolution to YES incredibly unlikely in my opinion. I am astonished that this market was at 50% a few minutes ago. Please confirm @DanielHeinz's statement.
@EnopoletusHarding I sold early because I wasn’t sure how it would resolve. Seems clear to me that Iran attacked. Iran claims they attacked. personally, I wouldn’t require an attack to be a success for it to resolve true.
@LarsOsborne Yeah, if you throw a punch at me and I catch it in my hand, you still attacked me. You didn’t miss, my action stopped you from hitting your target.