New cars must have digital license plates in CA before EOY 2027
New cars must have digital license plates in CA before EOY 2027
Mini
7
Ṁ2472028
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Digital license plates already exist and are available in CA and a few other states.
This claim is whether they will be required for all new car purchases in CA by end of 2030. This covers only new passenger cars from dealers, or tesla, etc. Not included are fleet/corporate/industrial/commerical/government/military or used car sales.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with 
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Will California sign into law any more AI bills before July 2025?
18% chance
Announcement that only digital license plates are allowed for all cars in CA by EOY 2030
18% chance
Reviver, a digital license plate company, is out of business or failing in CA before EOY 2027
51% chance
California requires visible sign of self driving capabilities of cars before 2044
65% chance
Will digital license plates become legal in most states by 2040?
45% chance
California allows non-alphanumeric characters in plates
9% chance
Who in California will see the first new plate starting with A on a Tesla
Self driving only vehicles available in California before 2044
88% chance
Will Cruise re-obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025
1% chance
Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025
39% chance