Note: this is the "next-mover" version of this great market by @Panfilo /Panfilo/which-of-these-states-will-recogniz
This market will defer to that market's resolution, since this timespan is a subset of theirs. So barring very extreme circumstances, nothing will change here unless it changes upstream.
But, we will reward 100% to the first country which newly recognizes Israel and 0% t oany other country.
In the last few years, multiple nations have normalized relations with Israel, such as Morocco, UAE, and Kosovo. Will this trend pick up again, or will the recent destruction in Palestine cause a long diplomatic winter?
If any states break preexisting relations with Israel, they will be added by me. If recognition is ambiguous, each entry will resolve based on the removal of a state from the color-coded categories on this Wikipedia list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the case of multiple countries recognizing Israel simultaneously:
The creator will first investigate if there is an agreed-upon or discernible order to the recognitions (e.g., through negotiation or historical record). If an order is found, the market will resolve 100% to the country designated as first.
If the recognition is determined to be truly simultaneous with no discernible order, the market will resolve with an equal split among the relevant countries.
@bens For technical reasons, I can't award more than 100 total. So in that case, I think equal split is fair. BUT, I will investigate whether it's "truly" simultaneous. For example, if there is negotiation about the ordering of the countries, the signing, the applicability, and there is general agreement that say, although two countries make this change on the same day, that Syria was first and say Indonesia was second, and that it's likely that for the purpose of history, the countries agreed on this, then it seems like I should give 100 to Syria. This is because the point of the market is also about which country will be willing to be identified as the one to recognize it next.