As judged by Us or by LLM, will the pentagon make a "very large", "major", "significant" change in their planning system AGAINST the F-35 program, by end date?
Definition: major - reducing planned expenditure or commissioning of planes within this program by at least 40%, or equivalent. For example, if they cut immediate orders by 30% and cut post-2035 promised orders by 90%, we need to evaluate if on net that counts as "cutting all by 40% today".
The change must happen and be legal or in progress, w/out future roadblocks which are in place. i.e. a law passed by the senate but not by the house which achieves this goal, but isn't confirmed, and is likely to fail, would not be enough to YES. But, if it were in a super strong position to pass, that would make a YES more likely.
We will judge by the state of play at end of the date, and not earlier, even if it appears the change is already made and locked in, say in 2026. Programs can be revived. i.e. there is no early judgement YES. But, if Elon is removed, DOGE is out, and Trump is clearly, aggressively defending the current F-35 plan we can resolve NO early.
It's very hard to be precise, but we'll try to judge as best as possible. Many outcome ARE clear.
Examples
e.g. Elon totally kills the program => clear YES
Elon fired quickly, DOGE shut down, F-35 continues as normal => clear NO
DOGE attacks it a lot, continued massive criticism, finally it's greatly scaled down and future investment is cut off (i.e. rather than investing through 2045 we just buy the ones we've said we would, and kill all planned future dev post 2027)
The above WILL be used as input to an LLM judge as a way to calibrate / evaluate the resolution of the claim. If it's truly hard to judge, I can also do numerical resolution to values proposed by the LLM under proper testing procedures (multiple trials, a fair presentation of evidence and best known state of play at the time, etc. with an attempt to get broadest possible consensus about how to run the arbitration among all traders here weighted by investment size).
end date: 6/30/2027