By when will Butch and Suni return to Earth?
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Plus
8
Ṁ12k
2026
3%
2025-02-28
86%
2025-03-31
92%
2025-04-20
97%
2025-05-31
Resolved
NO
2024-10-31
Resolved
NO
2024-12-31
Resolved
NO
2024-08-31
Resolved
NO
2024-09-30

By when will both be back on solid ground?

Resolves when they're on solid ground, for at least 10 seconds, alive.

If the answers are different, each resolves to 50%.

I'll add more answers if that appears warranted.

UTC time, on or before the date in question.

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filled a Ṁ500 2025-02-28 NO at 8% order

Sources said SpaceX is now working toward a no-earlier-than March 12 launch date for Crew-10 on Endurance. If this flight occurs on time—and the date is not certain, as it depends on other missions on SpaceX's Falcon 9 manifest—the Crew-9 astronauts, including Wilmore and Williams, could fly home on March 19.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/nasa-moves-up-target-to-return-butch-and-suni-but-not-for-political-reasons/

@EvanDaniel this suddenly got a lot more interesting

opened a Ṁ20 2025-02-28 NO at 35% order
filled a Ṁ100 2025-04-20 YES at 59% order

@Nat It certainly did, didn't it?

@EvanDaniel
https://x.com/NASA/status/1884710153838002561
NASA and SpaceX are expeditiously working to safely return the agency’s SpaceX Crew-9 astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore as soon as practical, while also preparing for the launch of Crew-10 to complete a handover between expeditions.

Do we read this as NASA saying
No real change in plan, but if Trump wants to bash democrats for undeserved reasons then we are not going to contradict him (who knows what Trump might do in reaction).

@EvanDaniel Can 31 Aug resolve please?

@ChristopherRandles yes. Thanks for the reminder!

@EvanDaniel 30 Sep ?

@EvanDaniel 31 October can also resolve

opened a Ṁ1,000 2024-12-31 YES at 70% order

Hmmm, somehow I didn't find that one. Can I get a "starliner" tag on it? It doesn't have one.

I'm going to leave this one open; the extremely different format (by when vs on which day) makes it fairly different.

Thank you!

Also this (which I did manage to find, but didn't like): /jacb/when-will-the-first-starliner-astro