Taylor Swift has endorsed Kamala Harris, including a link to register to vote. At least 337,000 people have visited it. Is that enough to (at least theoretically) swing the election? That is, will the margin of victory be less than the number of people who followed the link?
Details:
We'll use the best available estimate for the number of people who followed the link. Baseline is 337,000; if there's an updated number from a reputable source, we'll track that instead.
The election is about electoral votes, not the popular vote. How to convert those is a complicated question without a clear answer. So we'll pick an easy answer: if the number of people who followed that link, as a fraction of total votes cast, is greater than or equal to the margin in the tipping point state, this question resolves Yes. Otherwise it resolves No.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping-point_state
Only 2 elections have had a tipping point state with a margin under 0.213%
I like the idea behind the question, but in reality, this market is a rather theoretical thought experiment. Just because people clicked on the link doesn't mean they will actually register to vote. Additionally, people may not click the link because they’ve already registered or plan to do so at another time. They may still be influenced by her endorsement or simply didn’t see it on Instagram, which is why they didn’t click the link. Moreover, most people don't live in the/a swing state.
Even though Swift clearly endorses Harris, she also says, "Your research is all yours to do, and the choice is yours to make." While we can expect that most of her fans lean toward Harris, there will still be some who go through that link and end up voting for Trump.
It would be cool if someone could come up with a closer estimate of the actual, rather than theoretical, impact of her endorsement.
this market is a rather theoretical thought experiment
Yup, absolutely true. A market that made a better attempt at doing this well would be neat!
Example, using 2020 election numbers: 158,429,631 votes cast; 337,000 is 0.213% of that. Wisconsin was the tipping point state, with a 0.63% margin. 0.213% < 0.63%, resolves No.