Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2024?
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resolved Jan 1
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NO

Tests, demonstrations, and offensive use included.

UTC time zone.

#Global Macro
#Nuclear Risk
#North Korea
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https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-nuclear-test-icbm-ukraine-russia-a39a36f4ff000037f96116fd6f5633fb

South Korean military says North Korea appears poised to conduct nuclear and ICBM tests
South Korea’s military intelligence agency says North Korea has likely completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test and appears to be preparing to test a long-range missile capable of reaching the United States.
bought Ṁ15 NO

This is clearly in tension with this market.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-conducts-test-underwater-nuclear-weapons-system-kcna-2024-01-19/

MercurialGuesserboughtṀ50NO

@UnconditionalProbability That seems to only be the testing of the underwater systems, not an underwater detonation in its own right.

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