Who will be guest on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast?
Who will be guest on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast?
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26
Ṁ85592100
1D
1W
1M
ALL
98%
Ajeya Cotra
95%
Jared Kaplan
73%
Andrej Karpathy
73%
Michael Levin
70%
Chris Olah
70%
Amanda Askell
58%
Noam Brown
51%
Joscha Bach
50%
Geoffrey Hinton
50%
Michael Pettis
50%
Matthew Klein
50%
Tanner Greer
50%
Greg Brockman (gdb)
50%
Mira Murati
43%
Zvi Mowshowitz
36%
Nora Belrose
35%
Helen Toner
32%
Robert Caro
32%
Wang Huning
31%
Spencer Greenberg
This market invites participants to predict which individuals will appear as guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast over an indefinite period.
The market resolves YES for any guest who is featured in a released episode, regardless of when that episode airs.
If you submit the name of someone who already had at least one appearance, it will be resolved as YES.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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