
Did Luigi Mangione substantially leverage LLMs to plan the killing of UHC CEO Brian Thompson?
Mini
14
Ṁ501Jan 1
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Mangione was technically sophisticated and clearly familiar with AI. His plan combined a mix of careful, well-thought-out plans with oddly amateur mistakes. This pattern is often indicative of language model use in, e.g., inexperienced coders.
The market will resolve as yes if there are credible news reports that language models played a substantial role in planning the assassination. It will resolve as no if no such report has been made by the end of December 2025.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Was Brian Thompson (CEO of UnitedHealthcare) murdered in an act of revenge?
19% chance
Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty for the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson
5% chance
Will Luigi Mangione attempt suicide at least once while in custody before his trial is over?
10% chance
Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026?
5% chance
Will anyone be murdered by a Luigi Mangione Copycat in the United States Before 2026?
25% chance
Will Luigi get away with killing the CEO by a jury nullification by my judgement?
10% chance
Will Luigi Mangione die before the start of 2026?
5% chance
Will Luigi Mangione plead extreme emotional disturbance or not guilty by reason of mental illness?
23% chance
Will Luigi Mangione live until he is sentenced?
94% chance
Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, claim to have lost a friend due to denied claim or similar?
37% chance