Will Apple have a top tier AI tool developed in house and available to consumers by the of 2025?
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Plus
23
Ṁ1800
2026
25%
chance

Resolves yes if Apple has an AI tool widely considered top tier at any time by end of year 2025.

If this were to resolve YES today in 2023 Apple would need to have a LLM that is competive with GPT4 and Claud 2. If they had something like Bard I would resolve no.

This is not restricted to LLMs. For instance a top tier photo editing or video editing tool would count. But it has to compete broadly - "the best photo editor phone app" wouldn't count.

Because what counts might get subjective I won't bet on this.

  • Update 2025-08-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The tool must be developed in-house by Apple.

    • Acquisitions won't count: If Apple buys a company/product and introduces it, this will resolve NO.

    • Given time constraints, any purchase from now on will not lead to a YES resolution, even with further development.

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The title says developed in house, but the description omits that qualification. Apple purchasing somebody else's LLM and putting some finishing touches won't resolve YES?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen

Good question. As the title says it one way and the description doesn't contradict it, I'll have to resolve NO if they purchase a company and just introduce their product.

Given time constraints I think it's safe to say that no purchase from here on out would resolve YES

bought Ṁ33 NO at 25%

I'm assuming an image generation model would count? What about something like Google Pixel's magic eraser or Google Meet's noise reduction? Does only "generative AI" count?

@PlasmaPower sure, a top tier image tool would count. I think here they would be competing with Photoshop?

Video editing in Final Cut Pro would also count.