Will there be a 2024 October Surprise caused by Iran?
13
Ṁ236Nov 2
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There’s a long history of “October Surprises” in US presidential politics, where there is major news in the October before the election that has the potential to affect the result. Political commentators have suggested that Iran might be involved in one this year, just like occurred with Carter in 1980. Will that be the case?
It doesn’t have to favor either party or decide the election.
Resolves by majority poll, unless there is no disagreement.
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