Will there be a war between Iran and Israel by the end of 2024
133
Ṁ23k
Jan 1
21%
chance

Resolving criteria:

1) formal war is declared (yes)

2) informal war is declared, which is commonly accepted as a war (Ukraine invasion, operation ensuing freedom, etc) (yes) - the current Israel intervention in Gaza is considered a war; the current relationship between Israel and Hezbollah is not considered a war.

3) 2024 ends (no)

Non resolving criteria

1) threats of war

2) minor bombing/ rocket attacks/ cyberwarfare (stuxnet would not resolve)

#️ Wars
#Iran
#Middle East
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What is the threshold for war?

When it is

A) formally declared

B) generally recognized as war (i.e. Russia and Ukraine, or Operation ensuing freedom)

Please can you put that in the res criteria.

Do you specifically mean a declared war? Because they've definitely been shooting at each other, both directly and with proxies.

opened a Ṁ146 YES at 20% order

@traders limit order up at 20% if you want to bet NO.

@GazDownright ?

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