Manifold plays hangman! #3 [1000M prize]
32
Ṁ8307
Dec 8
23%
B
19%
C
23%
D
15%
F
32%
G
23%
H
4%
J
10%
K
37%
L
23%
M
44%
N
46%
O
19%
P
6%
Q
24%
R
35%
S
33%
T
22%
U
11%
V
16%
W

Word:_i____

Incorrect guesses: 2/6:

E,A

The banner art might not be up to date!

Background Hangman is a word guessing game where players try to guess a hidden word one letter at a time. Each incorrect guess results in drawing part of a hanging stick figure. The game is lost if the figure is completed (typically after 6 wrong guesses) before the word is solved.

Resolution Criteria

  • Every day, at ~8am UTC+2 the letter with the highest % (first in alphabetical order if there is a tie) will resolve.

  • Each letter in the alphabet (A-Z) will resolve YES if it appears in the hidden word, NO if it does not appear in the word.

  • I will reveal the hidden word and mark resolutions of the letter that didn't get resolved after the game concludes.

  • The game concludes when either:

    1. The word is successfully guessed (all letters revealed)

    2. The hangman figure is completed (6 incorrect guesses)

  • Capitalization is ignored - guessing 'a' or 'A' counts as the same letter.

  • If a letter appears multiple times in the word, guessing that letter once reveals all instances.

Considerations

  • The hidden word will be in English and contain only letters (no numbers, spaces, or special characters).

  • I obviously won't bet on this market.

  • I have chosen the word, it isn't necessarily chosen at random (although I might have).

The MD5 hash obtained when combining the word and an unknown string of characters that I will resolve at the end of this market is:

177bd3561b36f438a278699164ef9896

Linked markets:

Will Manifold in at hangman #3?

Who will in at hangman #3? [1000M prize]

Manifold plays hangman #3 profitable?

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:

I is in the word!

bought Ṁ10 T NO

Predictors may be interested in conditional probability based on missing letters. EAT go together a lot.

reposted

A is not in the word!

opened a Ṁ2 Answer #UOspO8ygN6 YES at 1.0% order

@GastonKessler How anti-EA. 😆

E is not in the word!

filled a Ṁ5 Answer #5gcC6qAS62 YES at 68% order

If you had 100 YES shares of each letter, the payout would be at most Ṁ600, possibly less if there are repeated letters. The current price of that would be Ṁ824.

@moobunny feel free to bet letters down if it means guaranteed profits!

bought Ṁ1 Answer #5gcC6qAS62 YES

How does the prize work?

@ItsMe Check the linked “who will win at hangman” market.