When will 14-day weather forecasts reach 60% accuracy?
When will 14-day weather forecasts reach 60% accuracy?
7
Ṁ99
2100
24%
Before 2040
20%
Before 2060
8%
Before 2080
8%
Before 2100
39%
After 2100/ Never (fundamental atmospheric chaos prevents this level of accuracy)

This market asks when 14-day weather forecasts will reach at least 60% accuracy as determined by official statements from major meteorological organizations (NOAA, Met Office, ECMWF, etc.).

Current accuracy levels for reference:

  • 7-day forecasts: ~80% accurate

  • 10-day forecasts: ~50% accurate

Sources:

#Climate
#️ Weather
#Climate change
#Meta-Forecasting
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