Purpose:
This market assesses whether the idea itself—that deliberately dimming sunlight could be a net benefit to humanity—is trustworthy, credible, and well-founded in publicly accessible scientific reasoning, not whether such an event has physically occurred.
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves YES if, by the close date, there is sufficient, credible, and publicly accessible information to indicate that:
The concept of solar-radiation management or equivalent sunlight-blocking intervention is supported as beneficial to humanity by a significant body of scientific, governmental, or institutional consensus, or
Public trust in the idea measurably increases (e.g., through formal endorsement, policy adoption, or verified scientific validation).
It resolves NO if:
There is clear, credible, and publicly available evidence that the concept is considered harmful, unethical, infeasible, or untrustworthy by leading scientific or governmental bodies, or
The majority of reputable expert commentary, peer-reviewed studies, or official reports frame it as detrimental, speculative, or manipulative in nature.
Evidence Standard:
Acceptable forms include:
Peer-reviewed publications, government or intergovernmental agency reports, official scientific advisories, or formal policy statements.
Reputable third-party summaries (major science media, recognized think tanks, or institutional research bodies).
Public polling or formal position statements showing significant shifts in credibility or public trust.
Unverified social media posts, anonymous claims, or paywalled/unverifiable materials do not count as evidence.
I do plan to vote in this market. Any objections or doubts as to how I judge or vote can be disputed but as a preliminary it should be known straightforwardly
https://au.news.yahoo.com/government-rules-plan-block-sun-101404124.html
https://ground.news/article/nasas-radio-silence-on-comet-3i-atlas-after-its-passage-on-mars
https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-016-0089-0
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1352231018303510
https://www.carbonbrief.org/geoengineering-carries-large-risks-for-natural-world-studies-show/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167629624000924