Miles driven, regardless of “level of autonomy”; will resolve to the top-3 players based on their relative market share.
This might be hard to resolve...
One example, how to handle a org like Uber (or possibly Lyft)? They might claim a large number of rides, but as a platform for multiple autonomous vehicles and software.
Similarly, where does someone like Mobileye fall? If they actually meet their goals, they might have software might power lots of different brands.
BYD was already doing 100k rides per day in Jul 2024, while Waymo is doing 29k rides per day in Mar 2025. The US market is 1/4 the size of China so unless Waymo expands internationally, this seems like it will go around 80% to BYD.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-11/alphabet-s-waymo-to-offer-self-driving-rides-in-silicon-valley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W9Y44m3lyI
@DavidFWatson same question. China already has self-driving taxi between cities (Shenzhen-Guangzhou)