Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
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Plus
45
Ṁ3343
2031
36%
Tesla
33%
BYD
23%
Other
7%
Waymo

Miles driven, regardless of “level of autonomy”; will resolve to the top-3 players based on their relative market share.

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This might be hard to resolve...

One example, how to handle a org like Uber (or possibly Lyft)? They might claim a large number of rides, but as a platform for multiple autonomous vehicles and software.

Similarly, where does someone like Mobileye fall? If they actually meet their goals, they might have software might power lots of different brands.

BYD was already doing 100k rides per day in Jul 2024, while Waymo is doing 29k rides per day in Mar 2025. The US market is 1/4 the size of China so unless Waymo expands internationally, this seems like it will go around 80% to BYD.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-11/alphabet-s-waymo-to-offer-self-driving-rides-in-silicon-valley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W9Y44m3lyI

@Pepe that is if they won't go bankrupt

Is this supposed to be US only?

@DavidFWatson same question. China already has self-driving taxi between cities (Shenzhen-Guangzhou)

If level of autonomy doesn't matter, shouldn't GM or Toyota be higher than Tesla? GM and Toyota drive cars drive far more miles per year than Teslas.

@Gigacasting If "level of autonomy" doesn't matter, what does this question have to do with self-driving at all? I should buy GM just because they sell the most generic cars.

Yes the title absolutely should be changed. Currently very misleading

14,000 cabs in New York (1 per 1000 people)

92% of households own cars and not into