
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?
Plus
63
Ṁ62672101
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
including tests; metaculus definition
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
@traders this is a notoriously inactive creator -- I suggest we extend the resolution date to 2100. I'm going to do that now, but if you have a strong and compelling consensus opinion that this should not be done, you could try to convince it to close at the end of 2023 instead.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before strong AGI?
85% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before GPT-5?
14% chance
Will we get AGI before WW3?
74% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
10% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
14% chance
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?
56% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
17% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be fired in anger before 2075?
54% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
19% chance
Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first?