Will Amazon spin off AWS by the end of 2024?
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predicted YES

25%? Is there any indicator of that happening?

Nope. Jassy was the ceo of AWS, he wouldn't let his child go away
I take this to mean AWS is a separate company, which would look like when you look at Amazon financial statements after this spin off, there is no mention of costs/revenue/assets associated with AWS. It might mean AWS is a public company (most likely?) but it could also be private.
what exactly is "spinning off"?

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