Background During Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk announced plans to launch an unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) service in Austin, Texas. The service will operate as a paid ride-hailing option, with vehicles operating autonomously without human drivers.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Tesla launches a paid ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas in June 2025 where vehicles operate without human supervision. The market will resolve NO if:
The launch is delayed beyond June 2025
The service requires human supervision/safety drivers
The service is canceled or not launched at all
The service launches but is restricted to a closed testing environment or limited beta program
Considerations
Tesla has made previous predictions about FSD capabilities that were delayed or modified
Regulatory approval from local and state authorities may impact the launch timeline
The definition of "full self-driving" and what constitutes "unsupervised" operation may affect resolution
Technical challenges or safety concerns could cause delays or modifications to the planned service
This is a little mean but maybe also kind of fair:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufbxvRo2rnY
The video is now 2 years old and he has kept right on doing this. FSD keeps improving but is still SAE level 2. I guess he'll be right eventually? But probably only after he's forced to admit how right Waymo has been all along. https://www.understandingai.org/p/teslas-robotaxi-strategy-looks-a
The definition of "full self-driving" and what constitutes "unsupervised" operation may affect resolution
@GordanKnott Please define "full self-driving" and what constitutes "unsupervised" operation.
I propose going with the existing definition of SAE Level 4.
@GordanKnott The definition of no human driver is clear. The Sawyer merritt and Tesla statements are what they are promising in June. If they launch a paid service without the supervised driver then that counts. Tesla did not talk about SAE Level 4 so that would have nothing to do with Tesla meeting their stated goal.
It should not mess with the prediction but having an extra meaningless term separates from the Tesla statements.
SAE Level 4 is defined as high driving automation where the vehicle can perform all driving tasks within specific conditions without human intervention2. Key aspects of Level 4 automation include:
The system can operate without human oversight within its operational design domain (ODD).
The vehicle can handle fallback situations without requiring human intervention.
It's limited to specific conditions, such as certain geographic areas or driving scenarios.
Musk's description of "Unsupervised FSD" with "No one in the car" suggests a system that doesn't require human presence or intervention, which is consistent with Level 4 capabilities. The limitation to Austin, Texas, also aligns with the geographically restricted nature of Level 4 system
@brianwang I avoid relying on Tesla for clear definitions since they started misleading people with the term "full self driving".
Regardless, the question is distinct from Tesla's promises. For example, I would not be surprised if Elon Musk and friends claimed mission accomplished even if the service is restricted to a closed testing environment or limited beta program. However, in such a situation this question would resolve NO.
The market will resolve NO if: [...] The service launches but is restricted to a closed testing environment or limited beta program
@HankyUSA They are already doing a mostly closed environment with 1500 cars per day. That is the 1.2 mile drive from Fremont factory to Loading dock parking. It is not fully closed in that there are other cars, forklifts and workers. they are doing public parking areas and short range up to 80 meter drives (actual smart summon). They have supervised testing on public roads in California and Texas.