Will DariusIRL kill himself before 35 years old ?
➕
Plus
30
Ṁ4916
2032
13%
chance

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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I’m a cold individual

I would 99.9% this after what just happened on stream.
holy s 😭

Jesus no matter what your opinion on darius is, I think this market is a bit much

@dgga let the mana flow

@dgga obviously its a meme and we care about his well being

@dgga The utility of posting these sorts of markets to Manifold is that traders outside of Destiny’s fanbase evaluate the hyperbolic claims with a sober mindset (the base rate on someone killing themselves is pretty low) and this calibrates the fans’ mindsets against normal human beliefs. More people should look to quantify exactly how ridiculous other people perceive their ridiculous statements to be.

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