
Will DariusIRL kill himself before 35 years old ?
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32
Ṁ49672032
16%
chance
1D
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1M
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Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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@dgga The utility of posting these sorts of markets to Manifold is that traders outside of Destiny’s fanbase evaluate the hyperbolic claims with a sober mindset (the base rate on someone killing themselves is pretty low) and this calibrates the fans’ mindsets against normal human beliefs. More people should look to quantify exactly how ridiculous other people perceive their ridiculous statements to be.