Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?
Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?
βž•
Plus
29
αΉ€1044
2040
28%
chance

The idea here is to understand if a considerable number of people trust AIs more than humans on making public decisions

Let's count any UN state, in any constituency, as long as the AI/algorithm wins with 10.000 or more votes. The AI can legally be elected as a person, but the campaign should refer to the AI or algorithm as the real candidate, and give the idea that decisions (written laws, votes) will be made the AI/algorithm. Public relations does not need to be made by the AI. Code does not need to be open source and may change during the term in office. There does not need to be any independent audit on whether the AI is really making decisions

Get αΉ€1,000 play money


Sort by:

Ten Thousand yes?

2y

10,000 is a lot of vote for most constituencies. Isn't a win sufficient regardless of the number of votes?

predicts YES 2y

@SteveIrwin In Brazil at least you can elect a "Vereador" (a municipality-level representative) with 45 votes in some cases - you can elect somebody just with the votes of a big family or company. I imagine there may be even more extreme cases in other countries. Maybe I should have done 1,000 votes as the threshold here, but I think we need some least number of votes to make this market more meaningful in terms of what it wants to estimate (people's trust in AI vs humans)

2y

by 2040 it only has to happen once

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (π•Š) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.