Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?
Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?
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27
Ṁ1884
2028
32%
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To qualify, the damage must set chip production back by over a month.

Peaceful disassembly doesn't count. I mean like kinetic or cyber military/paramilitary action, or employees going rogue and breaking equipment.

I sold my shares and will not bet anymore in this market.

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#AI wars
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1y

"Intentionally" means the purpose of the attack must be to set chip production back? Or does any deliberate damage to a facility count no matter its purpose (e.g. the PRC bombing it because of RoC military leaders sheltering in it or something)?

@ArmandodiMatteo "Deliberate" captures more of what I was going for. Your example would count, and natural disasters or industrial accidents would not.

1y

Any chip fabs or just cutting edge ones?

@mariopasquato Good question, how about "advanced"? Like perhaps a threshold transistor density of 100M transistors/mm^2 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count#Transistor_density) would qualify until maybe June 2024, unless the fab is making powerful deep learning processors or inference chips for military weapons.

1y

@HedShock Sounds reasonable, thanks for the clarification. It would be cool to have this market conditional on a war in Taiwan (or Chinese invasion however you may want to phrase that)

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