In which state will the tipping point House seat be located in the 2024 US Election?
Mini
19
แน€2631
Dec 31
32%
California
17%
New York
13%
Pennsylvania
12%
Arizona
4%
Iowa
4%
Colorado
4%
Texas
4%
Other
4%
Nebraska
3%
Maine
2%
New Jersey

Order all the 2024 House races by the Democrats' margin of victory (i.e. % D vote - % R vote). Which House race is the one that would give Democrats their 218th seat? In 2022, it was Iowa's 3rd Congressional District. See more: https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Congressional_margin_of_victory_analysis

This market will resolve ignoring any resignations or deaths, purely based off the recorded election results.

Feel free to add your own answers, however they must be valid states that have not already been added.

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bought แน€20 California NO

I don't know why California was trading at 98%. Brought it down to a more reasonable 30%.

bought แน€5 New York YES

Cool market idea, boosting