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No insider trading, just a very lucky hedge from an oil magnate in Venezuela.

Extremely well deserved! Resistant to the chavista repression since day one, stood firm as other opposition leaders were being violently subjugated or forced into exile, built bridges with a wide plurality of segments of Venezuelan society and the democratic international community, and a main coordinator of the movement to pre-empt and prove beyond reasonable doubt to the world Maduro's electoral mega-fraud last year (given that his regime had already stolen 5 electoral cycles between 2015 and 2021). All of this while she was being routinely smeared by a very loud international network of illiberal campists which has sunk considerable resources in trying to launder the regime's image, and the regime itself blocked as many paths as it could to stop her - literally and metaphorically. Very hard to overstate the courage she embodies. Bless her.

"Max 3 insiders, low liquidity. dirtycup 30 thousands, madurowilllose 17, pizza 11 - alltogether below 60 thousand dollars for supposedly well protected secret information, known just to few. Some kids earned pocket money for drugs. Pretty pathetic and embarrassing."

They… bent to political pressure I guess? Picked a candidate that Trump couldn’t be vocally angry about given his support for the Venezuelan opposition? Or perhaps tried to pick a candidate to reverse polarize Trump into supporting Maduro? Idk sometimes fam

@bens she seems like a really good candidate to me. Maybe I'm naive but I don't see any evidence of bending to political pressure

@Fion I agree she is good! I'm actually happy she won over something incredibly stupid like the ICJ. But I don't think my politics align with the Nobel committee's, so I'm surprised what their rationale was?

Can someone explain to me what she did to get the prize?

@Mrdudeguy https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2025/press-release/

Damn... polymarket being used as a way to turn information into money, I wonder if we'll ever know what happened.

Unbelievable

@brod it's pretty believable

@SemioticRivalry that this somehow leaked is pretty unbelievable tbh

Major awards frequently leak in the final 24 hours.

Any random person can say they know what will happen. The market requires you to back your prediction up with cash. If someone puts thousands of dollars behind their prediction, you should take that pretty seriously. And the market incentivizes people to do this when they have real info.

these prediction markets may be a real hotbed for fraud as they get more popular. Imagine all the insider trading and conflicts of interest.

@ItsMe I mean... insider trading is the POINT of prediction markets

But I do think there may be fraud on markets with less objective resolutions than "Nobel Prize"

@travis yeah I understand, had a position on maria here and on poly, just meant ‘crazy that actually was an insider’. looks like nobel committee is investigating:

If she wins it'll be a great example of the predictive power of prediction markets and also a great reason to never bet in them.

@Balasar More an information market, insider trading is not a prediction, it is “I'll give you money if you tell me something that nobody else knows.”

What is happening here?

If the Maria spike on polymarket is credible, that means the nobel committee has leaked their decision somehow, or some insider is trading on the knowledge. Surely the Nobel committee is not that fallible… right?

I’m betting on that, surely nothing ever happens right?

This is so lame lol

@bens donald trump

@bens well… that was silly

@DavidHiggs seemed a bit underpriced at literally 1% given the Israel Hamas negotiations underway.

@DavidHiggs voting supposedly closed on Monday. Threatening Norway with tariffs if he doesn't get the price also might have soured the jury of the peace price.

@AlexanderTheGreater Hmm, I probably should have looked up anything about the Nobel Peace Prize before trading on this market XD