Will The S&P 500 Close above 6,500 on December 31st, 2025?
Will The S&P 500 Close above 6,500 on December 31st, 2025?
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4
Ṁ1422026
15%
chance
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1W
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Background
The S&P 500 has shown strong performance in recent years, with several major financial institutions providing bullish forecasts for 2025. Goldman Sachs projects the index to reach 6,500 by the end of 2025, while UBS expects 6,400 and Oppenheimer Asset Management forecasts an even higher target of 7,100. InvestingHaven predicts the S&P 500 to trade in a range between 5,450 and 6,560 points in 2025.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if the S&P 500 index closes at or above 6,500.00 on December 31st, 2025, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The market will resolve NO if the index closes below 6,500.00 or if trading is suspended on the final day of 2025.
If December 31st, 2025 falls on a market holiday or weekend, the last trading day of 2025 will be used for resolution.
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Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.