The Supreme Court has held that Colorado and other states lack the power to remove insurrectionists from their ballots under the 14th Amendment, because it concluded that that power is reserved to Congress.
It also pointed to legislation that Congress has passed (18 U. S. C. § 2383) that makes insurrection a federal crime, and specifies that anyone convicted of that crime "shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States."
Special Counsel Jack Smith has already indicted Trump for conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, and obstruction of an official proceeding. These charges all relate to Trump's alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election that he lost to Joe Biden.
It has been suggested that Smith may have declined to indict Trump for insurrection in the hopes that it was unnecessary, and that if so, he may now add an insurrection-related count in order to disqualify Trump from office.
This question resolves to YES if Smith or any other federal prosecutor (whether Smith's direct successor or not) indicts Trump on any new charge involving the term "insurrection," whether or not it is explicitly under § 2383. The insurrection must be related to the 2020 presidential election. Any indictment that does not use the word "insurrection" in any way, or relates to any other election, will not resolve to YES.
For reference:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23893902-trump-indictment
@Snarflak Great question. It would not count for the purposes of this market. I wanted a very bright line to make resolution easier and more objective.
