OpenAI releases o3 by April 31, 2025
OpenAI releases o3 by April 31, 2025
31
Ṁ2456resolved Apr 16
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
OpenAI has announced plans to release the full o3 model in the next few weeks. This market predicts whether o3 will be released on or by April 31, 2025 on the Pro tier. Resolution will be based on official announcements from OpenAI's blog or press releases.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ69 | |
| 2 | Ṁ46 | |
| 3 | Ṁ29 | |
| 4 | Ṁ22 | |
| 5 | Ṁ18 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with 
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
OpenAI release o3 pro by May 8, 2025?
48% chance
When will OpenAI release the full o3?
OpenAI's next major AI model will be more open than GPT-4 by June 30, 2025
Will OpenAI release o3 >1 week before GPT-5?
99% chance
Will OpenAI dissolve by July 2025?
5% chance
If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?
49% chance
When will OpenAI announce o4?
OpenAI updates custom GPTs by EOY2025
63% chance
Will o3.5 be released before 2026?
4% chance
Will OpenAI refer to o3 as AGI?
5% chance