If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?
If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?
➕
Plus
30
Ṁ8386
2050
14%
chance

If Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?22%‌ resolves YES, this market resolves to the correct answer. If we find out that they are advanced technology but it's unclear who created them, this market remains open until we have a definitve answer.

"Human" means specifically the humanity we live in. If they were created by biologically-human creatures from a parallel universe's Earth, this market resolves to YES.

If that market resolves NO, this resolves N/A.

#️ Technology
#Space
#Aliens
#UFO
#Conspiracy Theories
#Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs)
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
3 Comments
26 Holders
118 Trades


Sort by:
predicts YES 1y

These markets are all over the place and completely inconsistent. This market should be at 60% right now, and I bid YES because the related market below has been consistently favoring NHI over advanced human technology:

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

‌

predicts NO 1y

On the contrary, this market is way too high, it should be at <1%

predicts NO 1y

I agree, but looking around I see that we don't have a good market to establish the base rate of this. So I've made one:

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions