Is superintelligence possible within the known laws of physics?
Plus
30
Ṁ18992300
96%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
33% chance
Is AGI possible within the known laws of physics?
99% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?
87% chance
Conditional on a major breakthrough happening in physics thanks to AI, will it be due to simulation based inference?
19% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
70% chance
Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?
22% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
80% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?
87% chance
Conditional on a major breakthrough happening in physics thanks to AI, will it be due to deep learning?
72% chance
How should AI Superintelligence be defined, in terms of IQ?