The market with the most traders at the end of 2024 will be of what type?
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Ṁ452
resolved Oct 28
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Multiple-choice/free response
83%
Binary
2%
Stock
2%
Numeric
3%Other

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@mods @IsaacKing Please resolve

@Primer Do we have the data on hand for this?

@Stralor No idea. There are only 3 traders besides Isaac and me, one of them Joshua, maybe he knows? Anyways, I'm probably the only one with guaranteed win from either resolving binary or multiple-choice, and I'd say: Not worth the trouble, just n/a.

@Primer [

{

"total": 2580837,

"outcome_type": "BINARY"

},

{

"total": 0,

"outcome_type": "BOUNTIED_QUESTION"

},

{

"total": 2594,

"outcome_type": "DATE"

},

{

"total": 677285,

"outcome_type": "MULTIPLE_CHOICE"

},

{

"total": 7302,

"outcome_type": "MULTI_NUMERIC"

},

{

"total": 5876,

"outcome_type": "NUMBER"

},

{

"total": 128791,

"outcome_type": "POLL"

},

{

"total": 15444,

"outcome_type": "PSEUDO_NUMERIC"

},

{

"total": 0,

"outcome_type": "QUADRATIC_FUNDING"

},

{

"total": 69656,

"outcome_type": "STONK"

}

]

@Primer Alright here are the listed markets with the most traders ever (resolved and open; closed is much tinier)

(ugh I see embedding images on the android app is still finicky after years. I'll post the text instead)

US Pres 2024 (Dependent) - 8.3k <- closed Nov 2024

LK-99 (Binary) - 6.6k <- closed Jan 1 2025

AI High Quality Movie 2028 (Binary) - 4.1k <- Open

Andrew Tate Sex Trafficking (Binary) - 3.4k <- Open

I remember all of these in 2024 before I left the site, so they crossed that threshold into 2025. The close dates allow us to easily disregard the two currently open markets. The question is: does the market need to have been open for trading at resolution time? Unspecified here.

@Stralor oh I thought it meant market type with the most cumulative traders

@ian ah I see you've arrived! I think thats the resolution I was coming to but your data is off. What market has 100ks or 1Ms of traders? I think that's trades, or total traders? (but then the 0s dont make sense)

@Stralor it's cumulative traders across all markets of that type

@ian Well no need to figure it out further. It's a passable resolution to wrap this up

@ian Thanks!

@Stralor yeah @IsaacKing can weigh in if he wants. Now that I read the title more closely I think he might've meant which singular market, but I'm not sure

@Stralor thank you for looking into it as well!

@Stralor For what it's worth: I traded on the assumption: At end of 2024, I look at open markets with the largest number of traders. Resolves to the type of the #1 market.

@Primer Yeah thats my read rather than historical markets

@Primer I'm down to reresolve, I'll resolve multichoice then

@ian But that one wasn't open at end of 2024 😅

@Stralor why does it have to be open then?

@Primer 😂 let's leave it be, there's a good case for either

@ian @Stralor We could've just n/a'd...

@ian no reason other than ambiguity and trader expectation

@Stralor huh, i guess i don’t see the open interpretation, just which market with no qualifiers

@ian yeah and I read it as which market without an "ever" qualifier. ambiguous, but I'm happy with leaving it resolved MC. it's the literal interpretation

@IsaacKing Please resolve. Thanks!