What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
Mini
33
Ṁ2107
2070
57%
North Korea
21%
Other
7%
Russia
3%
Saudi Arabia
2%
China
2%
Iran
2%
The United States
1.2%
Israel

This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated. (Including tests and civilian uses.)

The blast must be independently confirmed by multiple sources and not subject to significant uncertainty as to whether it took place.

For reference, the most recent nuclear test was in 2017 by North Korea. North Korea is the only country confirmed to have detonated a nuclear device since 1998, though there are suspicions of more recent secret tests by China and Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests

#️ Nuclear
#North Korea
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1y

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-conducts-test-underwater-nuclear-weapons-system-kcna-2024-01-19/

1y

https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-conducts-nuclear-test-nevada-hours-russian-move-revoke-global-nuclear-test-ban.amp

2y

This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated. (Including tests and civilian uses.)

How does it resolve if it's a group that isn't a country, like ISIS or SpaceX? What if it's an AI that hacks an existing nuclear arsenal, or builds a new one?

2y

@StevenK I've added a "not a country" answer that would cover all 3 of those things. (Unless SpaceX was doing it in close cooperation with the US government, or ISIS was being secretly backed by some other country's government, etc.)

2y

@IsaacKing Just read it appears a test is imminent.

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