
When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
Plus
33
แน49962040
1D
1W
1M
ALL
35%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2040?
30%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2030?
25%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2040?
11%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2026?
10%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2030?
1.5%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2026?
1%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2024?
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
This market is to determine what bias, if any, exists in that market, and when it's likely to resolve.
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@IsaacKing Ah I apologise, have we misunderstood how these answers resolve? I'd interpreted it as that they'd resolve NO once their timeframe had passed, given that I don't see a way they could ever resolve YES, but is the intention to leave them open indefinitely if the original market also remains open indefinitely?
@jack This already existed elsewhere, the point of my market was to discern the asymmetric utility bias.
Do both the yes&no conditionals for a year resolve no when that year passes without resolution?
Also plugging my own version of this from before:
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