Will I see anyone other than myself wearing a helmet in a car before the end of 2025?
15
Ṁ1177
Jan 2
14%
chance

I must see them in person. Race car drivers don't count. Nor does it count if they're wearing the helmet for some other reason and briefly entered a car. It must seem like they're wearing it primarily to reduce the risk of injury in a car accident in normal driving operations.

If they're wearing a helmet because I honestly convinced them it was a good idea, that counts. If they're doing it because I paid them or otherwise influenced their decision in some way that isn't "them thinking it's a good idea", that doesn't count.

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Why does this make me angry? On the face of it, it shouldn't. I like people doing strange things.

I think it's because the safetyist religion is inherently proselytysing and coercive. Plane seatbelts, face masks, bike helmets, you name it. This tendency is reflected in the phrasing of the question - of course you want to have other people doing it. That's why it makes me angry.

The same reason why I hate leftist politics and gravitate towards MAGA. With leftists it's always "we", "we", "we", "weeeeee". No. Do what you want, but leave me out of it.

I wonder if wearing a helmet makes you feel safer, causing complacency, and actually increasing the overall risk of head injury.

I wonder how many motor vehicle accident sustained TBIs are from the head forcibly colliding with some external object (I.e. able to be protected by a helmet), versus from the brain colliding with the inside of the skull (wherein a helmet wouldn’t make a difference).

@snazzlePop A helmet still helps in the latter case, the point is the lower the acceleration experienced by the head.

Is there some research suggesting that wearing a helmet significantly reduces relative risk of serious injury when driving a car?

I'm driving to EAG Boston and I wear a bike helmet while driving. If you see me there...

predicts NO

@NicholasKross Good to know there's at least one other person out there!

Would it resolve to YES if the person you saw wearing a helmet was someone you knew / convinced to put a helmet on, either for safety reasons or for the purpose of this market's resolution?

predicts NO

@TheBayesian Good question. If they're wearing a helmet because I honestly convinced them it was a good idea, that counts. If they're doing it because I paid them or otherwise influence their decision in some way that isn't "them thinking it's a good idea", that doesn't count.

Do you wear a helmet in a car regularly?

predicts NO

@ian Theoretically, yes. I haven't been great about it in the past, but I'm trying to get better now.