Any objections to this resolving NO? Of course I've been seeing AI stuff constantly, but to normal people AI is certainly still a small consideration.

@IsaacKing AI has been a constant presence in the news, but it hasn't been "entirely full" of it. So yeah, safe to resolve NO I reckon.

(And there's a difference between AI "news" and AI "drama".)

@IsaacKing Agree with Fion's framing. There's plenty of AI stuff in the news, but it's certainly not full of it, and especially not "drama".

As a very unstatistical litmus test, I opened up the Reuters homepage just now. I saw one AI-related article and tons of politics, markets, Israel/Gaza, Ukraine/Russia, etc stuff that isn't directly related to AI. Very comfortable with this resolving NO

@IsaacKing And this market only requires that at least one quarter between Q2 2024 and 2029 not be full of AI drama. If someone wants to object on the basis that the news is full of AI drama now, I would be happy to make the case that, e.g., Q4 2024 wasn't full of AI drama.

@IsaacKing I feel like this should resolve NO

Will you resolve this market before Q4 2024 if the news won't be full of AI drama in Q2 2024?

@IsaacKing, can you remove the capital letter at the start of the sentence and the period at the end? Their absence in the original tweet is an important cue to the fact that I'm joking.

@EliezerYudkowsky Sure, done.

@EliezerYudkowsky Looking at the capitals and periods in Eliezer tweets is the last resource I have left to distinguish reality from fiction at this point.

also 2.5k no at 33

I mean, there's US elections in Q4, no way that doesn't dominate headlines regardless of what's going on in AI space

@firstuserhere The elections can potentially end up dominated by AI drama.

limit order for 4k no at 50