Will there be a rocket with a payload to LEO of at least 500 Mg before 2035? | Manifold

Will there be a rocket with a payload to LEO of at least 500 Mg before 2035?

Mini

3

Ṁ435

2035

10%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

To resolve YES, the rocket must actually put that amount in LEO at least once.

Physically-separate-but-attached boosters count as part of the same rocket; the overall stack must have that capacity.

Current record is 121 Mg by the Saturn V.

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With only a 10 year time horizon, it would almost have to be a rocket that is currently being considered.

I think Starship V3 is supposed to hit 400 if fully expanded, so even that's not enough. Maybe if they make version of Starship with an even larger diameter?

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