Will there be perfect MTG counterfeits before 2030?
Will there be perfect MTG counterfeits before 2030?
Mini
6
Ṁ118
2030
55%
chance

Magic has a big counterfeiting problem. Modern counterfeits are good enough to fool most players, even experienced ones, but still have some consistent tells for people who know what to look for. But there's nothing in principle preventing people from making perfect counterfeits that are completely indistinguishable from the real thing. If I have high confidence that such a thing has happened, this market resolves to YES.

#Magic: The Gathering
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2y

Is it enough if they exist for a subset of / some / one card?

predicts NO 2y

@CodeandSolder Yes, as long as it's a normal card and not one printed in a nonstandard method that's easier to fake. (e.g. Robot Chicken.)

2y

@IsaacKing as an outsider sometimes seeing some good MTG content randomly I'm surprised it hasn't happened, do I understand correctly the main standing obstacle is the offset printing pattern?

It seems like it would be enough to scan the card in high enough resolution, separate the colors with a reasonably simple script and use that to make the plates

predicts NO 2y

@CodeandSolder Nobody's done that yet

predicts YES 2y

@IsaacKing so that is in fact all it would take to access a multi-million dollar market? Maybe just nobody got caught yet?

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