Will the US Government implement "Universal Basic Compute" by 2030?
Mini
6
Ṁ173
2030
12%
chance

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has repeatedly mentioned the idea of "Universal Basic Compute" or a "basic compute budget" which individuals can use, resell, or donate. For one example, see the following article: OpenAI's Sam Altman has a new idea for a universal basic income

This question concerns the implementation of such a program by the US government. Other markets may consider any country in the world, or private entities doing this.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if before January 1, 2030:

  • The U.S. federal government implements a program that provides all citizens with guaranteed access to computing resources (processing power) at no direct cost

The market will resolve NO if:

  • No such program is implemented by January 1, 2030

  • OR if only state/local governments or private actors implement such programs

  • OR if the program requires means-testing or is not universally available to all citizens

Considerations

  • Implementation would require significant regulatory frameworks and funding mechanisms that don't currently exist

  • Current government digital infrastructure initiatives don't mention UBC or similar universal computing access programs

  • Technological advancements in cloud computing and edge computing could make implementation more feasible over time

  • Growing concerns about AI job displacement could increase pressure for digital resource access programs

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#AI
#Technical AI Timelines
#AI Impacts
#United States
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Market for any country: https://manifold.markets/IsaacLiu/will-any-country-implement-universa

Will any country implement "Universal Basic Compute" before 2030?
11% chance. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has repeatedly mentioned the idea of "Universal Basic Compute" or a "basic compute budget" which individuals can use, resell, or donate. For one example, see the following article: OpenAI's Sam Altman has a new idea for a universal basic income This question concerns the implementation of such a program by any national government. See my prior market concerning the US government: https://manifold.markets/IsaacLiu/will-the-us-government-implement-un Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if before January 1, 2030: A national government of a state recognized by the United Nations implements a program that provides all citizens with guaranteed access to computing resources (processing power) at no direct cost The market will resolve NO if: No such program is implemented by January 1, 2030 OR if only private actors implement such programs OR if the program requires means-testing or is not universally available to all citizens Considerations Implementation would require significant regulatory frameworks and funding mechanisms that don't currently exist Technological advancements in cloud computing and edge computing could make implementation more feasible over time Growing concerns about AI job displacement could increase pressure for digital resource access programs

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