The Keys to the White House is a system used to predict the outcome of US presidential elections. It has been correct 9 out of 10 times, with its only failure being predicting that Al Gore would beat George Bush in 2000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House
See also:
Allan Lichtman has called the election for Kamala Harris.
At what point are you taking Lichtman's prediction for the purpose of market resolution? Now? He's absurdly overconfident in Biden. The day before the election? After the election, when he can post hoc rationalize enough of the subjective keys to whatever result makes his "model" correct?
Can't really bet on this without knowing when you're "locking in" Lichtman's prediction.
He has rationalized after the fact to make his system seem better before - for example, he (incorrectly) predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016, then hastily changed what he said his model was for after Trump won while losing the popular vote.
This should be lower; he seems to be leaning towards a Biden prediction:
also also see: "There are also four shaky Keys, all of which would have to fall to predict Biden’s defeat," he said.
https://www.fox5dc.com/news/presidential-predictor-allan-lichtman-uses-13-keys-to-the-white-house-tracker-on-2024-election
@benshindel That's what i think so... But the market doesn't seem to agree. Every elections people end up doubting Allan Lichtman, then he ends up being right again. If you would just look at the track record, nothing else, i would say 90% chance he's going to be right.
@nikki He says he's waiting until August for a final verdict. It's true one can't get a full picture of the economy and foreign policy events until then, but also, by then polls are a bit more predictive, so seems like a copout.
Midterm gains: False (Democrats lost 22 seats)
No primary contest: Likely true, Biden likely takes the nomination with little challenge
Incumbent: Likely true
No third party: Uncertain, but leaning true nearer election day
Strong ST economy: Leaning false if trend continues, polls show majority are perceiving a recession
Strong LT economy: Likely true given high GDP growth post-COVID recession
Major policy change: Likely false, nothing major yet and Biden faces a Republican House
No social unrest: Leaning true, unrest since the end of the George Floyd riots has persisted but has been much less significant
No scandal: Likely true, no bipartisan agreement on any wrongdoing as of now
No foreign failure: Likely false given the (disliked) Afghanistan withdrawal, unresolved tensions with China and Russia, etc.
Major foreign success: Likely false unless something like a serious blow against Hamas occurs
Charismatic incumbent: Likely false as it was in 2020
Uncharismatic challenger: Likely true with Donald Trump as he was in 2016 and 2020, or any other GOP nominee
I count 6 or so false keys for Democrats right now.
When does Litchman make his prediction? This seems to be primarily a bet on how uncertain the result the presidential election will be at the time he makes his prediction (if this market is higher than the price of the predicted candidate at the time Litchman makes his prediction, you can just buy the predicted candidate instead of this market).
Keys have been debunked awhile ago. Only question is whether Lichtman decides them based on his vibes of who he thinks will win, and how accurate those vibes are. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/despite-keys-obama-is-no-lock/
I would say around 8-9 are true now. The keys are missing Biden's age and unpopularity. The economy is actually fine-ish or even good, but b/c of the past inflation, people don't view it as that great. It may get slightly better in the next year (60% chance for me), or get much worse (20% chance; if oil prices rise). Biden's primary isn't looking all that competitive. He's an incumbent. Some chat the the advantages of incumbency are not what they used to be.
Biden's foreign policy blunder in Afghanistan might have partially worn off. Biden is not charismatic. He's also facing an unpopular challenger (Trump) who has been indicted four times. Overall I'd say the fundamentals have Biden up slightly, or predict a close election at least.
@DouglasCampbell Does Israel count as a foreign policy blunder? Ukraine might become one as well if Russia starts advancing again.
@DouglasCampbell I don't think the intelligence blunder in Afghanistan has completely worn off. In the age of targeted influence campaigns people's memories for long past events can be easily "refreshed". Trump's a polarizing character but nobody would call him uncharismatic.