Baseline:

Tesla 2024: 1,789,226

Rivian 2024: 51,579

Winner will be who has the best percentage change from the 2024 baseline. If both companies sell less vehicles than the year before, then the company with the smaller loss wins.

So this does mean that Tesla can sell 100,000 more vehicles in 2025, which is a 5.59% increase. but Rivian can sell only 3,000 more vehicles, leading to a 5.82% increase and win the market.

Market will close on Last day of 12/31/2025 but will not resolve until the figures are posted by the companies, which is usually in the first week of 2026.