Baseline:
Tesla 2024: 1,789,226
Rivian 2024: 51,579
Winner will be who has the best percentage change from the 2024 baseline. If both companies sell less vehicles than the year before, then the company with the smaller loss wins.
So this does mean that Tesla can sell 100,000 more vehicles in 2025, which is a 5.59% increase. but Rivian can sell only 3,000 more vehicles, leading to a 5.82% increase and win the market.
Market will close on Last day of 12/31/2025 but will not resolve until the figures are posted by the companies, which is usually in the first week of 2026.
Man, I wished the market was more liquid, these odds are bonkers. Rivian has an official delivery goal that's 17% BELOW last year, while Tesla is at -5% after Q3. Even with Tesla likely having a less stellar Q4 (I expect them on -7% to -9% for the full 2025 - small markets cannot absorb all the production excess indefinitely) and Rivian over-fulfilling despite a bad market in their only sales region, it is hard to believe that Rivian could end up with a smaller contraction than Tesla. Maybe if Tesla crashes down by 50% q-o-q, but even if they do not sell a single car in the coming three months in the US they wouldn't reach such levels of collapse!
Per Q1 Numbers:
Rivian: 8,640 Deliveries in 2025 vs 13,588 in Q1 2024, (63.5% of previous year delivers)
Tesla: 336,681 Deliveries in Q1 2025 vs 386,810 (87% of previous year delivers)
@JDTurk this reminds me that I should really read their reports, and maybe listen to the calls. I sold off my TSLA stock (timing was good), but kept the Rivian.
Tesla's decline was entirely predictable: increased competition in Asia from Chinese and Korean-domestic EV companies (which are impressive), and political fallout in US and Europe.
But for Rivian, that's a surprising amount of decline. They're not production limited (they're producing well above sales to build inventory, since they'll be having production shutdown later this year for R2 prep). Their brand should be poaching from Tesla right now, among people who are motivated by that. They mention the SoCal fires as a factor; if that's valid, then they are shockingly dependent on just one region for their sales.