Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025?
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60%
chance
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GAIA: a benchmark for General AI Assistants
paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983
GPT4 scored only 15% compared to 92% for humans
I will resolve based on open source results or official reputable company announcements/papers.
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Good market. A good resolution source might be the average score on the test set https://huggingface.co/spaces/gaia-benchmark/leaderboard
I would be interested in a market that ends at the end of 2029.
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